Trump’s Tariffs Are Driving Insider Trading in the Oil and Gas Industry—Here’s Why

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Ever since Trump began his second term in office, he has been threatening Canada and Mexico with tariffs, aiming to curb illegal drugs and immigration.

These threats materialized on March 4, 2025, when the U.S. government imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% on China.

These tariffs could trigger a global trade war, where Canada and Mexico retaliate with their own tariffs, prompting the U.S. to respond with further tariffs—and the cycle continues.

Interestingly, there are so many ways these tariffs could impact the U.S. stock market.

However, insider trading patterns over the past few weeks suggest that executives at U.S. oil and gas companies expect the tariffs (and a potential trade war) to significantly affect America's energy sector.

Here’s why:

Currently, about 60% of America's imported crude oil comes from Canada, and 7% from Mexico, and in the case of a full-blown trade war, the U.S. government may be forced to impose tariffs on Canadian and Mexican crude oil, which could lead to two major consequences:

1.  Increased costs of crude oil imports from these countries, which will affect American consumers and businesses in the form of more expensive refined petroleum products like gasoline and natural gas.

2. Since importing crude oil from other countries would become more expensive, domestic demand for U.S. crude would surge.

Either way, tariffs on foreign oil would increase revenues for domestic petroleum, crude oil, and gas companies, and likely drive up their share prices.

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Some of the recent insider purchases we’ve noticed include:

• Matador Resources Co (MTDR): $1.5M worth of insider purchases in two weeks

• Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. (NOG): $1.7M worth of insider purchases in two days

• Profrac Holding Corp. (ACDC): $4.3M worth of insider purchases in one day

• Noble Corp Plc (NE): $823K worth of insider purchases in one day

And many more...

These trades suggest that insiders in the oil and gas industry expect stock growth in the near future.

Insider Trading at Grocery Outlet: A Rollercoaster of Confidence and Caution

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) is a discount retailer that sells name-brand and private-label products at reduced prices, similar to Costco. 

However, recent insider trading activity has sent mixed signals about the company’s future.

In the past two weeks, five insiders have purchased $2.6 million worth of Grocery Outlet shares, while six others have sold off approximately $380,000 worth.

So, what’s behind the contrasting confidence levels of the insiders?

The Earnings Report That Sparked Panic

Grocery Outlet’s Q4 2024 earnings report, released on February 25, 2025, triggered a sharp sell-off (by the general public and some insiders). The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.15, missing analysts’ expectations of $0.17. 

This disappointment led to a 16.14% drop in its stock price, falling to $13.20 in after-hours trading.

At first glance, this reaction seems justified, however, a deeper dive into the financials suggests the sell-off may have been an overreaction.

It Could Be A Medium-Term Hiccup

Despite missing earnings expectations, Grocery Outlet’s revenue grew by 10.1% in 2024 to $4.37 billion. However, net income plunged nearly 50% to $39.5 million.

The main culprit? Aggressive expansion. 

The company is rapidly increasing its store count across the U.S., which has inflated its annual costs:

• Selling, general, and administrative expenses rose 11.4% to $1.24 billion, outpacing gross profit growth.

• Long-term debt surged 61% to $462.5 million (to set up new stores), pushing interest expenses up 35% to $22.2 million.

Looking ahead to 2025, Grocery Outlet plans to open another 55 to 60 new stores, which is projected to drive up annual sales to $4.6 billion.

From the company’s reports, it seems like its reduced profitability is largely a short to medium-term issue driven by expansion costs.

However, as new stores mature, revenue and market share will grow, potentially boosting long-term profitability.

This explains why some insiders, like the Chief Financial Officer, saw the post-earnings dip as a buying opportunity. They believe the share price will skyrocket as the expansion pays off.

Also, analysts seem to agree with this line of thought, as some have suggested that Grocery Outlet’s fair value lies between $16 and $28 per share—meaning the stock could be undervalued at its current price of about $13.